{"id":3683,"date":"2021-07-28T05:00:29","date_gmt":"2021-07-28T10:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/4-reasons-why-the-end-of-forbearance-will-not-lead-to-a-wave-of-foreclosures\/"},"modified":"2024-01-18T20:52:06","modified_gmt":"2024-01-19T02:52:06","slug":"4-reasons-why-the-end-of-forbearance-will-not-lead-to-a-wave-of-foreclosures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/4-reasons-why-the-end-of-forbearance-will-not-lead-to-a-wave-of-foreclosures\/","title":{"rendered":"4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\"  src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.simplifyingthemarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/27160736\/20210728-KCM-Share-549x300.jpg?w=358&#038;ssl=1\" class=\"webfeedsFeaturedVisual wp-post-image\" alt=\"4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures | Simplifying The Market\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"margin-bottom: 5px;clear:both;max-width: 100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won\u2019t happen.<span id=\"more-44824\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong>1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>After the last housing crash, about <a href=\"https:\/\/economics.cmail20.com\/t\/ViewEmail\/d\/6DD5AA0E9F6529292540EF23F30FEDED\/5323CD85A2087AFD22947492D9797BBC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">9.3 million<\/a> households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.<\/p>\n<p>As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.firstam.com\/economics\/this-time-its-different-why-a-wave-of-foreclosures-is-unlikely\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">30% of all mortgage holders<\/a> would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/2021-press-releases\/july\/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-350-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">down to 3.5%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at \u00a01,863,000. That\u2019s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home <\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Of the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.<\/p>\n<p>The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">annual foreclosure numbers<\/a> of the three years leading up to the pandemic:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017: 314,220<\/li>\n<li>2018: 279,040<\/li>\n<li>2019: 277,520<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than 3 months of inventory on the market.<\/p>\n<p>As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the <em>National Association of Realtors<\/em> (NAR), <a href=\"https:\/\/magazine.realtor\/daily-news\/2020\/11\/18\/yun-real-estate-could-see-best-winter-ever\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">explains<\/a> when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cAny foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4><strong>4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Just last Friday, the White House released a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2021\/07\/23\/fact-sheet-biden-administration-announces-additional-actions-to-prevent-foreclosures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">fact sheet<\/a> explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>\u201cFor homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that<strong> allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>\u201cThe new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to <strong>provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers\u2019 monthly principal and interest (P&amp;I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term<\/strong>. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>When evaluating the four reasons above, it\u2019s clear there won\u2019t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>As Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm <em>Zelman &amp; Associates<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tomferry.com\/our-podcast\/experience-91\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">notes<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cThe likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is <strong>about zero percent<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: New feed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won\u2019t happen. 1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time After the last housing crash, about 9.3 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3684,"comment_status":"false","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10157519356927224_105287467588662":"","twitter_15771620_15771620":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54],"class_list":{"0":"post-3683","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-info","8":"tag-100-financing","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/4-reasons-why-the-end-of-forbearance-will-not-lead-to-a-wave-of-foreclosures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. 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