{"id":4969,"date":"2023-06-05T05:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all\/"},"modified":"2023-06-05T05:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T10:30:00","slug":"oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all\/","title":{"rendered":"Oops! Home Prices Didn\u2019t Crash After All"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\"  src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/content\/images\/20230602\/20230605-oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all.png?w=358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Oops! Home Prices Didn\u2019t Crash After All Simplifying The Market\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"margin-bottom: 5px;clear: both;max-width: 100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>During the fourth<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/lifestyle\/housing-recession-already-according-economists-150645245.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Jeremy Siegel<\/a>, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the <em>Wharton School of Business<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cI expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/markzandi\/status\/1577352297239248896?s=61&amp;t=a3XuSbg4t99IcSH3mFbdpQ\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Mark Zandi<\/a>, Chief Economist at <em>Moody\u2019s Analytics<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.\u201d<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/intelligence\/pages\/why-home-prices-are-poised-to-fall.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Goldman Sachs<\/a>:&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cHousing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research\u2019s G-10 home price model suggests&nbsp;<\/em><strong><em>home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S.<\/em><\/strong><em> . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4><strong>The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/46031\/display\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>December Consumer Confidence Survey<\/em><\/a> from <em>Fannie Mae<\/em>. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (<em>see graph below<\/em>). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/content\/images\/20230602\/20230605-percent-of-americans-each-december-who-thought-prices-would-go-down-over-the-next-12-months.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/content\/images\/20230602\/20230605-percent-of-americans-each-december-who-thought-prices-would-go-down-over-the-next-12-months.png?ssl=1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>However, home prices didn\u2019t come crashing down and seem to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2023\/05\/16\/the-worst-home-price-declines-are-behind-us\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">already rebounding<\/a> from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In a report just released, <em>Goldman Sachs<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/intelligence\/pages\/as-interest-rates-climb-the-global-housing-market-is-surprisingly-stable.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">explained<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThe global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. <\/em><strong><em>House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.<\/em><\/strong><em>,. . . \u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Those claims from <em>Goldman Sachs <\/em>were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/indices\/indicators\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index\/#news-research\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Case-Shiller<\/em><\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/DataTools\/Downloads\/Pages\/House-Price-Index.aspx\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">FHFA<\/a>. Here are the numbers each reported:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/content\/images\/20230602\/20230605-percent-change-in-home-values.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/content\/images\/20230602\/20230605-percent-change-in-home-values.png?ssl=1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.<\/p>\n<h3>Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p>The housing market is much stronger than many think. To get a true evaluation of your local market, reach out to a trusted real estate professional.<\/p>\n<p>Source: New feed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>During the fourth&nbsp;quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts: Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business: \u201cI expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4970,"comment_status":"false","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10157519356927224_105287467588662":"","twitter_15771620_15771620":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54],"class_list":{"0":"post-4969","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-info","8":"tag-100-financing","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oops! 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