{"id":4973,"date":"2023-06-07T05:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/the-main-reason-mortgage-rates-are-so-high\/"},"modified":"2024-01-18T20:53:19","modified_gmt":"2024-01-19T02:53:19","slug":"the-main-reason-mortgage-rates-are-so-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/the-main-reason-mortgage-rates-are-so-high\/","title":{"rendered":"The Main Reason Mortgage Rates Are So High"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"The<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers<\/a> right now. As a result, if you\u2019re thinking about buying for the first time or selling your current house to move into a home that better fits your needs, you may be asking yourself these two questions: <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?<\/li>\n
  2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Here\u2019s context you need to help answer those questions.<\/p>\n

    1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?<\/strong> <\/h4>\n

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely influenced by the supply and demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to Investopedia<\/em><\/a>: <\/p>\n

    \u201cMortgage-backed securities (MBS) are investment products similar to bonds. Each MBS consists of a bundle of home loans and other real estate debt bought from the banks that issued them . . . The investor who buys a mortgage-backed security is essentially lending money to home buyers.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Demand for MBS helps determine the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate<\/a>. Historically, the average spread between the two is 1.72 (see chart below<\/em>):<\/p>\n

    <\/a><\/p>\n

    Last Friday morning, the <\/span>mortgage rate<\/a> was 6.85%. That means the spread was 3.2%, which is almost 1.5% over the norm. If the spread was at its historical average, mortgage rates would be 5.37% (3.65% 10-Year <\/span>Treasury Yield<\/a> + 1.72 spread).<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/a><\/p>\n

    This large spread is very unusual. As George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters<\/em> (KCM), explains<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    \u201cThe only times the spread approached or exceeded 300 basis points were during periods of high inflation or economic volatility, like those seen in the early 1980s or the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    The graph below uses historical data<\/a> to help illustrate this point by showing the few times the spread has increased to 300 basis points or more:<\/p>\n

    <\/a><\/p>\n

    The graph shows how the spread has come down after each peak. The good news is, that means there\u2019s room for mortgage rates to improve today.<\/p>\n

    So, what\u2019s causing the larger spread and making mortgage rates so high today?<\/p>\n

    The demand for MBS is heavily influenced by the risks associated with investing in them. Today, that risk is impacted by broader market conditions like inflation<\/a> and fear of a potential recession<\/a>, the Fed\u2019s interest rate hikes to try to bring down inflation<\/a>, headlines that create unnecessarily negative narratives about home prices<\/a>, and more.<\/p>\n

    Simply put: when there\u2019s less risk, demand for MBS is high, so mortgage rates will be lower. On the other hand, if there\u2019s more risk with MBS, demand for MBS will be low, and we\u2019ll see higher mortgage rates as a result. Currently, demand for MBS is low, so mortgage rates are high.<\/p>\n

    2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American<\/em>, answers that question in a recent blog<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    \u201cIt\u2019s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal and provides investors with more certainty. However, it\u2019s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Bottom Line<\/h3>\n

    The spread will shrink when the fear investors feel is eased. That\u2019ll mean we should see mortgage rates moderate as the year goes on. However, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates, no one can know for sure exactly what will happen.<\/p>\n

    Source: New feed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Today\u2019s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers right now. As a result, if you\u2019re thinking about buying for the first time or selling your current house to move into a home that better fits your needs, you may be asking yourself these two questions:  Why Are Mortgage Rates So High? When Will Rates Go […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4974,"comment_status":"false","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10157519356927224_105287467588662":"","twitter_15771620_15771620":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54],"class_list":{"0":"post-4973","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-info","8":"tag-100-financing","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Main Reason Mortgage Rates Are So High—NWI Loan Guy Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/the-main-reason-mortgage-rates-are-so-high\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Main Reason Mortgage Rates Are So High—NWI Loan Guy Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers right now. 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