{"id":5728,"date":"2024-03-05T05:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market\/"},"modified":"2024-03-05T05:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T11:30:00","slug":"why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Why There Won\u2019t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\"  src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Why-There-Won-t-Be-a-Recession-That-Tanks-the-Housing-Market.png?w=358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Why There Won\u2019t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market Simplifying The Market\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"margin-bottom: 5px;clear: both;max-width: 100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we\u2019re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here\u2019s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn\u2019t going to happen.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.builderonline.com\/data-analysis\/how-the-election-and-unemployment-could-impact-the-2024-housing-market_c\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">According<\/a> to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at <em>LendingTree<\/em>, the economy\u2019s pretty strong:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cAt least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, <\/em><strong><em>the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for<\/em><\/strong><em>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That might be why a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">recent survey<\/a> from the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> shows only 39% of economists think there\u2019ll be a recession in the next year. That\u2019s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (<em>see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"a graph of the economic growth of the economy\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Most experts believe there won\u2019t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let\u2019s compare where we are now with historical data from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/countries\/USA\/united-states\/unemployment-rate\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Macrotrends<\/em><\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/pdf\/empsit.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/em><\/a> (BLS), and <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/unemployment-rate#:~:text=Unemployment%20Rate%20in%20the%20United,percent%20in%20May%20of%201953.\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Trading Economics<\/em><\/a>. When we do, it\u2019s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (<em>see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (<em>shown in blue<\/em>).<\/p>\n<p>But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">survey<\/a> to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (<em>see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"a graph of blue bars\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>As you can see, economists don\u2019t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years \u2013 much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed. <\/p>\n<p>Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone\u2019s out of work, that\u2019s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn&#8217;t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p>Most experts now think we won&#8217;t have a recession in the next year. They also don&#8217;t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don\u2019t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.<\/p>\n<p>Source: New feed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we\u2019re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here\u2019s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn\u2019t going to happen.&nbsp;&nbsp; According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5729,"comment_status":"false","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10157519356927224_105287467588662":"","twitter_15771620_15771620":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54],"class_list":{"0":"post-5728","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-info","8":"tag-100-financing","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why There Won\u2019t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why There Won\u2019t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we\u2019re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here\u2019s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn\u2019t going to happen.&nbsp;&nbsp; According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"NWI Loan Guy Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NWIHomeLoans\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NWIHomeLoans\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-05T11:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240304\/20240305-Why-There-Won-t-Be-a-Recession-That-Tanks-the-Housing-Market.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" 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