{"id":5907,"date":"2024-07-08T05:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/not-a-crash-3-graphs-that-show-how-todays-inventory-differs-from-2008\/"},"modified":"2024-07-08T05:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T10:30:00","slug":"not-a-crash-3-graphs-that-show-how-todays-inventory-differs-from-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/not-a-crash-3-graphs-that-show-how-todays-inventory-differs-from-2008\/","title":{"rendered":"Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today\u2019s Inventory Differs from 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\"  src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Blog-Header-Image-original.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today\u2019s Inventory Differs from 2008 Simplifying The Market\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"margin-bottom: 5px;clear: both;max-width: 100%\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Even if you didn&#8217;t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As <em>Business Insider<\/em> says:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThough many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing,<\/em><strong><em> the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond<\/em><\/strong><em>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Here\u2019s why experts are so confident. For the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/06\/17\/do-elections-impact-the-housing-market\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">market<\/a> (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/06\/12\/home-prices-arent-declining-but-headlines-might-make-you-think-they-are\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">home prices<\/a>) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn&#8217;t show that\u2019s happening. Right now, there\u2019s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time \u2013 and that\u2019s true even with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/05\/16\/the-number-of-homes-for-sale-is-increasing\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">inventory growth<\/a> we\u2019ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)<\/li>\n<li>New home construction (newly built homes)<\/li>\n<li>Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And if we look at those three main sources of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/06\/05\/the-sweet-spot-for-buying-luxury-homes\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">inventory<\/a>, you\u2019ll see it\u2019s clear this isn\u2019t like 2008.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it\u2019s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months\u2019 supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly. <\/p>\n<p>If you look at the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/topics\/existing-home-sales\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">data<\/a> (<em>shown in green<\/em>), compared to 2008 (<em>shown in red<\/em>), we only have about a third of that available inventory today.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Average-Annual-Inventory-of-Homes-for-Sales-original.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Average-Annual-Inventory-of-Homes-for-Sales-original.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"No Caption Received\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>So, what does this mean? There just aren&#8217;t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there\u2019d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that&#8217;s not the case right now.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>New Home Construction<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>People are also talking a lot about what&#8217;s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/06\/13\/homebuilders-arent-overbuilding-theyre-catching-up\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">overdoing it<\/a>. Even though new homes make up a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/05\/09\/the-top-2-reasons-to-consider-a-newly-built-home\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">larger percentage<\/a> of the total inventory than the norm, there\u2019s no need for alarm. Here\u2019s why. <\/p>\n<p>The graph below uses data from the <em>Census <\/em>to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/xls\/co_cust.xls\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">show<\/a> the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you\u2019ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Builders-Arent-Overbuilding-they-re-catching-up-original.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Builders-Arent-Overbuilding-they-re-catching-up-original.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"No Caption Received\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren\u2019t overbuilding today, they\u2019re catching up. A recent article from <em>Bankrate<\/em> says:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cWhat\u2019s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they\u2019ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4><strong>Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplifyingthemarket.com\/2024\/04\/24\/foreclosure-numbers-are-nothing-like-the-2008-crash\/?a=375140-ca8522ad04357da9549c08492a932f70\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">foreclosures<\/a>. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn\u2019t truly afford. <\/p>\n<p>Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses <a href=\"https:\/\/www.attomdata.com\/news\/most-recent\/u-s-foreclosure-activity-increases-quarterly-in-q1-2024\/%E2%80%8B\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">data<\/a> from <em>ATTOM <\/em>to show how things have changed since the housing crash:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Foreclosure-Filings-Are-Very-Low-original.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.keepingcurrentmatters.com\/KeepingCurrentMatters\/content\/images\/20240703\/20240708-Foreclosure-Filings-Are-Very-Low-original.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"No Caption Received\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (<em>shown in black<\/em>) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.<\/p>\n<p>While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up \u2013 remember, that\u2019s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We\u2019re still below the normal level we\u2019d see in a typical year. <\/p>\n<h4><strong>What This Means for You<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Inventory levels aren\u2019t anywhere near where they\u2019d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As <em>Forbes <\/em>explains:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cAs already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we\u2019re in a bubble ready to pop. <\/em><strong><em>However, the likelihood of a housing market crash\u2014a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand\u2014remains low for 2024<\/em><\/strong><em>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at <em>First American,<\/em> points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren&#8217;t headed for a crash:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThere\u2019s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It\u2019s Econ 101.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the <em>National Association of Realtors<\/em> (NAR), says: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cWe will not have a repeat of the 2008\u20132012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p>The market doesn\u2019t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis \u2013 and there\u2019s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That\u2019s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn\u2019t a crash on the horizon.<\/p>\n<p>Source: New feed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even if you didn&#8217;t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5908,"comment_status":"false","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10157519356927224_105287467588662":"","twitter_15771620_15771620":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54],"class_list":{"0":"post-5907","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-local-info","8":"tag-100-financing","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today\u2019s Inventory Differs from 2008&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nwiloanguy.com\/blog\/not-a-crash-3-graphs-that-show-how-todays-inventory-differs-from-2008\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today\u2019s Inventory Differs from 2008&#8212;NWI Loan Guy Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Even if you didn&#8217;t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. 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